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The Age of Electricity is creating enormous opportunities in the critical minerals investment thematic. Howard, Rodney and Matt provide in-depth discussions with major developers and analysts covering lithium battery metals, rare earths, and many other specialty commodities.
Episodes
Tuesday Jul 21, 2020
Tuesday Jul 21, 2020
Rodney Hooper and Howard Klein are back after a 3-month hiatus taking stock of the information contained in the Mr. Lithium Market Scoreboard as the tumultuous 1H 2020 punctuated by Covid Q2 disruption is in the books.
Tried and true "Don't Fight the Fed" combined with a new pandemic maxim "Buy in May, Stay At Home," combined with Tesla $69.42 S3XY short shorts is leading to cautious optimism/better bid behavior across a number of lithium stocks.
While a battle for lithium mindshare has emerged from an upgrading Ganfeng China analyst from underweight to overweight vs. her SQM & ALB love/hating colleagues - recognizing the highly relevant dichotomy between speciality hydroxide for Tier One customers in Japan and Korea trading at 80% premium to China "spot" carbonate.
Tune in for detailed commentary on Ganfeng, Mineral Resource, Lithium Americas, Sigma Lithium, Altura and many new and old names in USA, Europe, Mexico, Argentina, Chile and Canada.
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research. Read Disclaimer: libull.com
Tuesday Mar 10, 2020
Tuesday Mar 10, 2020
Lithium-ion Rocks is back after a 6-week hiatus with interviews and commentary from Canada's premier metals and mining event #PDAC2020. The key Battery Materials highlight was an event sponsored by law firm Miller Thomson keynoted by 2019's Nobel Prize winner for Chemistry Stanley Whittingham - who flags future dominance of nickel-rich NMCA chemistries - and reminders from Benchmark Minerals Andy Miller about western OEM's over-reliance on China's supply chain & the likelihood for upside lithium price volatility in the face of decreased greenfield investment and brownfield expansions.
Benchmark's groundbreaking work with the USA government powers-that-be returns May 21/22 to Washington DC and will be followed thereafter by what is sure to be another annual must-attend event: Battery Megafactories Europe in Berlin June 17/18 at which Rodney Hooper will be Chairing the sessions and corporate presentations for "Trans-continental Opportunities for Europe’s Supply Chain"
E28 Podcast index below, which includes comments on quarterly and year-end results from Dividend Aristocrat $ALB, Air Supply $SQM, Tianqi's Kwinanamaska woes, $1772's parabolic rise despite #Ganfeng's paltry 9% margins. We also discuss a key area of focus - Lithium 3.0 with 2030 Vision - our preference for advanced junior developers, and the wide valuation disparity among them which offers potential for asymmetric risk/reward for astute Jane and George Battery Pack investors.
0.00: Introduction
0:40: Spodumene and chemical pricing forecast (Andy Millar)
1:48: Howard introductory commentary
3:06: Stanley Whittingham Q&A PDAC
8:50: Howard commentary, focus on Ganfeng and Altura
18:20: Q&A with Andy Millar, focus on the impact of coronavirus, battery plant growth and the future
37:10: Rodney commentary, focus on Europe and EV sales, supply/demand for 2020
45:30: Howard closing commentary, including risk/rewards of lithium investing
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Not Investment Advice. Do your own Research. Read Disclaimer: libull.com
Sunday Jan 19, 2020
Sunday Jan 19, 2020
Is 2020 Finally Going to Be the Year for Lithium?
As the Roaring 20’s Lithium 3.0 begins, so too the need for 2030 Vision:
* ~2Mt LCE, 1.7m new tons
* 6X 2019 production
* 17 new Wodginas
* 68 25kta new processing plants!
It takes 4-5 years and USD500M-1B+ to build, or buy & build, 50% of Kidman's Mt Holland or 100% of Piedmont Lithium - 20+ year mine life, 20-25kta sustainable, world class qualified integrated project to supply ~500,000 EVs from one new and expanded USA battery plants at LG Chem, SK Innovation, Tesla and Volvo.
With 2030 Vision, USA can lead North America to 400,000 tons annual production, or 20% of 2M global LCE, or 33%+ of the EV OEM-qualified market. Where from those 400,000 tons?
As China refrains from further withdrawing subsidies prematurely, Tesla is once again THE story, and Europe is the New China with talk about a possible Carbon Border Tax, Sustainability is the buzzword on everyone's lips globally.
It may take 60 years to reach the first million tons of demand (~2025), but we expect the next million to take around six years (~2031). New assets will be needed and an "all of the above" lithium investment strategy required - conventional rock, brine, direct lithium extraction and clay/softrock.
Tune in to hear special guest Gerrit Fuelling join LithiumIonRocks co-hosts Rodney Hooper and Howard Klein recap Lithium 2.0 with 2020 Hindsight & look forward with 2030 Vision. And discuss which companies we see the most Blue Sky in Green Fields.
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Not Advice. DYOR
Tuesday Dec 31, 2019
Tuesday Dec 31, 2019
Chris Reed and Neometals monetized a $3M investment in Mt Marion into $200M cash over a 10-year period since bringing Mineral Resources in as Build Own Operater with 30% project interest in 2010. No Stranger, Chris Reed, descendant of mining royalty & man of deep global lithium expertise at the epicenter of the last decades boom busts, shares the great history in partnering to create the worlds second most important hard rock lithium resource - a secure, sustainable supplier to green European sensitivities at VW & BMW, for example, via China Girl Ganfeng - while maintaining strong economics for both miner and processor of this pioneering 50:50 JV.
Mineral Resources now has strong JVs in Western Australia with the two most important lithium producers globally - Albemarle and Ganfeng. How might this dynamic evolve over time?
Neometals has done well by its shareholders - returning cash via dividends and buybacks, as it has monetized Mt. Marion, while at the same time, maintaining a 20-person staff "project generating" new ventures. With NMT trading at about its cash balance of AUD 108M, Mr. Market seems to assign no value to this team of proven value creators.
That could change in 2020/21 as Neometals advances its exceptionally high IRR - 72% - low Capex - USD 66M - recycling project in partnership with Germany industrial giant SMS. With Auto OEMs in particular government mandated to re-cycle their exponentially growing universe of EV batteries, this emerging industry is destined to be a hot development area over the next decade. Neometals is one of the few public plays in the re-cycling space.
Chris discusses Neometals revenue potential from recycling services, licensing and sale of recovered cobalt, nickel, lithium, copper, iron, aluminium, manganese into saleable products using its proprietary, sustainable process recovering materials from consumer electronic batteries (lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) cathodes), and nickel‐rich electric vehicle and stationary storage battery chemistries (lithium‐nickel-manganese‐cobalt (NMC) cathodes).
Chris also shares some thoughts on the new Lithium Paradigm with volume purchaser Auto OEMs treating lithium as they do all their other "suppliers".
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Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research
Monday Dec 23, 2019
Monday Dec 23, 2019
Gerrit Fuelling, an ex Rockwood/Albemarle chemical engineer who held senior executive roles in sales and operations, joins Lithium-ion Rocks co-hosts Rodney Hooper and Howard Klein for a second time this year for a candid discussion and highly differentiated perspective, in particular re: brine producers and developers in Chile and Argentina.
Also included are key highlights and voices from existing ALB management from their December 12 Investor Day in New York.
Questions
- hydroxide and carbonate spec sheets are tightening from end users, in particular Auto OEMs - will old producers/old plants (eg. SQM) meet the new standards? Or are new producers/plants better placed?
- Orocobre and Galaxy have decided to produce a lower quality/intermediate product in Argentina to be processed in lower altitude locations closer to cathode production -- is there an issue with these particular brines/projects (Hombre Meurto/Olaroz) to produce battery quality in Argentina? In general, can "conventional" evaporation (ie, the "Atacama process") work in Argentina or do you need different technology (eg. ion-exchange) that Livent uses to successfully produce battery quality?
- Do you believe Greenfield development projects in Argentina can achieve SQM/ALB-like operating costs (ie, below $3,500/t)? How applicable is Ganfeng's prior experience processing purified SQM brine to the development of Cauchari with Lithium Americas?
- Rodney wrote recently that breakeven pricing for Chinese non integrated converters using conservative numbers at about $8,400, so at $7K China carbonate spot, these marginal cost producers are well underwater, how much longer can they last? How are Chinese converters surviving?
- Can a chemical conversion plant be built in Europe? Is the EU serious enough about battery supply to support mining?
Listen carefully to Gerrit's detailed answers to all of the above PLUS Peter Parker Eric Norris's input on the brine vs. Hard Rock debate for an increasingly hydroxide future, ALB's path from 2020 trough to a $800-1B free cash flow machine and a bonus "bad answer" from Luke Kissam in response to Howard's question re: Mineral Resources JV
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research. Read Disclaimer: libull.com
Monday Dec 23, 2019
Monday Dec 23, 2019
Lithium-ion Rocks co-host Howard Klein and Keith Phillips, CEO of North Carolina, USA-based, Piedmont Lithium reflect on Keith's 30 months since becoming The BOSS - after a storied 30-year career in global resource investment banking.
Growin' Up:
From 500 acres and 19 exploration drill holes to a major milestone 404 permit for its mine and concentrator last month. Keith maps out the path over the next 12 months to definitive feasibility study and full funding/final investment decision Q42020 with first hydroxide production by 2023.
She's the One:
Keith also discusses the unique attributes and strategic nature of America's only spodumene lithium development project in "Hydroxide Hub" North Carolina in Albemarle and Livent's backyard. Piedmont's integrated scoping study suggests it could be the world's lowest cost producer of the highest valued battery quality lithium hydroxide ($3,100 cash costs projected).
Piedmont is listed on #ASX and #Nasdaq, ticker #PLL
The company has no debt and a market cap of USD 60M. 100% of its production is available as off-take to prospective customers/partners/investors.
PLL in July raised AUD21 M at 14.5 cents with large institutions adding a new 9% blue--chip investor, Fidelity International alongside Australia's largest institutional investor AusSuper Annuation, following their rights to maintain a 13% stake. PLL trades today at 11 cents, despite its lightning speed project advancement/permitting.
Piedmont Lithium. Rhymes with Kidman.
Growing Up. She's the One
Santa Claus is Coming to Town
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research. Read Disclaimer
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Monday Dec 09, 2019
Monday Dec 09, 2019
One of LinkedIns most influential voices about Electric Vehicles, Roger Atkins has amassed nearly 300,000 followers over 15 years immersed in the accelerating disruption of the passenger vehicle market and all other forms of e-mobility. "From Electric Guitars to Electric Cars," this accomplished solo musician shares a lot in common with one Lithium-ion Rocks co-host including Southern American blues influences to Robert Plant and Mick Jagger.
A chance breakfast encounter at Hotel California with Simon Moores at the Benchmark Minerals Cathodes conference planted the seed for this episode. Roger shares his astonishment that the automobile companies he watches pour billions into unproven autonomous technology ventures for the distant future,, but leave themselves “hostile to fortune” in a few years because they have not secured adequate critical mineral lithium supply.
Lithium-ion Rocks also previews E24 with The BOSS #KeithPhillips of Nasdaq and ASX-listed #PiedmontLithium following their major milestone federal 404 permit for mine and concentrator.
Podcast Index
0-3:15 Introduction of Roger Atkins & His Background
3:15-25 - Q&A with "Great Question" Rodney Hooper & Howard Klein
PHEV vs. BEV debate? Will PHEVs be the dominant EV or will BEVs like Tesla be more popular? Sustainability? Climate Consciousness? How important is the battery supply chain carbon footprint to EV buyers in Europe? What is his sense about Europeans willingness to buy an EV if it costs more than ICE? Will they pay a premium to "do the right thing?" How important are EV buyer subsidies? Do OEMs recognize their "hostage to fortune" upstream lithium materials vulnerabilities? Will 2020 be the first year we see Tesla, Volkswagen or other auto OEMs allocate $1-2B checks not just to distant autonomous vehicle venture dreams, but to direct investments in mining and chemical production to address imminent hydroxide shortages? Which countries, projects are best placed to attract such investment/partnerships?
25-45 Interview with Keith Phillips of Piedmont Lithium
Keith reflects on his 30 months since becoming The BOSS when Piedmont had only 500 acres and 19 drill holes, and, following a major milestone 404 permit for its mine and concentrator, discuss the path over the next 12 months to definitive feasibility study and full funding/final investment decision toward first battery quality lithium hydroxide production by 2023.
Piedmont is listed on #ASX and #Nasdaq, ticker #PLL
The company has no debt and a market cap of USD 60M. 100% of its production is available as off-take to prospective customers/partners/investors.
PLL in July raised AUD21 M at 14.5 cents with large institutions adding a new 9% blue--chip investor, Fidelity International alongside Australia's largest institutional investor AusSuper Annuation, following their rights to maintain a 13% stake. PLL trades today at 11 cents, despite its lightning speed project advancement/permitting.
Growing Up. Pink Cadillac. She's the One
Santa Claus is Coming to Town
The BOSS
—
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Not investment advice. Do Your Own Research.
Friday Nov 08, 2019
Friday Nov 08, 2019
The tenure of Lithium-ion Rocks' co-host Howard Klein’s four day London visit for LME Week remained relatively bearish lithium and broader resource market as tariffs inflicted on aluminum and steel have had a real impact and ongoing trade war, slowing China GDP, negative EU yields, Brexit and impeachment narrative overhangs are all weighing on sentiment.
And yet, kernels of optimism from cash flow machine Rio Tinto CEO J-S Jacques as 60%+ iron ore EBITDA margins and reduced gearing enables a vision built on decade of discipline and peering into a future challenged by complex geopolitics, disruptive technology and broader environment/societal considerations. SUSTAINABILITY.
The LME's announced advisory committee for lithium price - including Tesla, Jaguar, BASF, Tianqi and Albemarle - revived "The Clash" among price reporting agencies and other forecasters.
Bloomberg NEF's Sophie Lu and James Frith join Rodney and Howard with their bullish views on nickel-based cathode chemistries. "We see battery grade hydroxide that reach the specs needed to be very tight, even in the short term.... Around 40% of battery grade capacity are being developed not by Tier One producers...Any one project not fulfilling the time lines could result in short-term deficit..."
Podcast Index
0- 12 - Takeaways & Excerpts from LME Week Battery Materials Presenters
12-21 - Rio Tinto Key Note Speech Excerpts
21-47 - Interview with BNEF's Sophie Lu and James Frith
Tuesday Nov 05, 2019
Tuesday Nov 05, 2019
Tesla Profits & Lithium Prophets
As LME Week transitions toward Hotel California Benchmark Minerals Anodes/Cathodes and Deutsche Bank’s annual New York Lithium & Battery Supply Chain conference, Rodney Hooper shares thoughts on profitability - Tesla Q3 and Volkswagen’s long-term expectations - BMW direct battery materials sourcing, Tianqi’s overrun at Kwinana and the math behind $12K+ battery quality lithium pricing long-term. Howard comments on North American Rock - the evolving Carolina to Quebec Hydroxide Hub - and borate/lithium plays in Western USA.
And let's not forget Brien Lundin’s 45th Annual New Orleans Investment Conference Halloween Weekend at which Benchmark’s Simon Moores & The BOSS Keith Phillips @PiedmontLithium will be the principal EV-angelizers of the lithium investment thematic.
New Kid in Town: E3 Metals Corp (TSX-V: ETMC, CAD 10M market cap)
After The (white) Gold Rush of 2016/2017, and with substantial shortages of battery quality lithium chemicals forecast by as early as 2022/23 by virtually every analyst who has examined the lithium business the longest and in greatest detail, Livent, the world’s fifth biggest producer and acknowledged technology leader, has executed their first meaningful investment outside their core resource in Argentina and processing facilities in North Carolina, China, India and the UK.
Committing up to USD 5.5M with potential to convert to 19.9% ownership of E3 Metals, Livent looks to be making a low risk, potentially high reward foray to prove via a Joint Development Project that Direct Lithium Extraction/Ion-Exchange Process can commercially convert the lithium-rich Le Duc oilfield reservoir - 6.7M LCE inferred resource to date - to an initial 20,000 t battery quality lithium hydroxide production by 2023 and scale from there.
In E21, “Alive-nt in Alberta: E3 LiTHiuM," LithiumIonRocks discuss with Chris Doornbos, CEO of E3 Metals the back story to this under-the-radar lithium developer, and expected milestones over the next 12-18 months and beyond on the road to potentially becoming a new, secure & sustainable supplier of what Volkswagen calls the “Irreplaceable Element for the Electric Era".
Podcast Index:
0 - 2:37 - Introduction
2:38 - 12: 15 - Rodney on Tesla, EU, $12K+ long-term BQ lithium price
12:16 - 24:30 - Howard on Nemaska, Piedmont, Rio Tinto, ioneer, Senator Schumer’s EV plan
24 - 50 - Q&A with Chris Doornbos, CEO E3 Metals
@LithiumIonBull
@RodneyHooper13
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Not Investment Advice. Read Disclaimer. Do Your Own Research.
Thursday Sep 12, 2019
Thursday Sep 12, 2019
LEAVING ARGENTINA.
DECLINE OF LI PRICES IS JUST BEGINNING.
Deja Vu, Hey Joe?!
Lithium equities have fallen precipitously since late February 2018 as the above and similar headlines entered the public domain from a global team of research analysts at Morgan Stanley which has amongst the most extensive breadth of coverage across the EV supply chain - from mining/chemical to cathode to battery to Autos.
Is the bear lithium price thesis underpinning their call correct? Or have they been “right for the wrong reasons” so far?
Helplessly Hoping as back to school September begins Rodney Hooper and Howard Klein continue their Season 2, Episode 2 interview with Morgan Stanley’s Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan who covers (Somebody to Love) SQM, one of the largest, lowest cost lithium suppliers and has articulated aggressive supply expansion from their world class Salar da Atacama project.
Howard connected with Javier in March 2016 following SQM's 50% equity stake in Lithium America’s Cauchari-Olaroz in Argentina, an investment he looked at skeptically at the time as a ploy as SQM re-negotiated its Atacama concession with CORFO. Anyone invested in lithium shares interested in preserving their capital should have listened to Javier and the Morgan Stanley team, if not in February 2018 when they made their initial call, then perhaps in August that year, when their call on SQM exiting Argentina proved correct.
As VW & other German auto Lords continue to make Dieselgate amends at the Frankfurt Auto Show - less with Mercedes Benz & Hippie vans and more with Taycan Porsches and ID.3s, please enjoy Part Two of Lithium-ion Rocks! 20th episode, inspired by the 50th anniversary of the legendary Woodstock concert, With a Little Help From Janis, Joe Cocker.
And please also visit the Lithium-ion Rocks “tip jar”: www.patreon.com/lithiumionrocks
Podcast Index:
0:00 - 1:18 - Introduction
1:19 - 8:00 - Q&A European OEM need for diversity of supply, Carbon footprint of the battery supply chain, Subsidies
8:01 - 14:00 - Q&A SQM supply ramp to 2025, SQM environmental
14:01 - 22:50 - Q&A SQM quality of product, market share. Lithium as a global product, technology and the future
22:51 - 42.44 - Q&A Price forecasts, what multiple should lithium companies trade at? Can incumbent producers meet future lithium demand? Chilean lithium market share, SQM sustainability
42:45 - end - Ending and disclaimer
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research
For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website atwww.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures