Rock Stock Channel

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Rock Stock Channel™ is a vibrant and engaging look at the mining and chemical industry supplying the lithium-ion battery-fuelled disruption of the Transportation and Utility industries.

Episodes

7 days ago

Lithium Rebound Coming? Ken Hoffman from McKinsey Breaks Down What’s Next

7 days ago

In this episode, we sit down with Ken Hoffman, a seasoned expert in the lithium and battery materials space, formerly at McKinsey & Company. Ken brings deep insight into the current state and future trajectory of the lithium market, drawing from his recent engagements across the Middle East, Chile, and China.

We cover a wide range of timely and critical topics for investors, including:

- The divergence in sentiment between global markets and why the Middle East is emerging as a strategic hub for battery supply chain investment
- Lithium price cycles and how the current downturn compares to previous ones
- Demand growth driven not only by EVs but increasingly by stationary storage and data centers
- The role of China in shaping global lithium pricing and inventory cycles
- Technological advancements in battery chemistry, pack design, and refining methods
- Why sodium-ion batteries may not be the threat some believe—and why lithium demand is likely being underestimated
- The outlook for key producing regions, including Chile and its evolving government strategy
- How the West’s slower project financing contrasts with China’s strategic investment model
- Where pricing could go over the next 1–3 years based on historical patterns and macro trends

This conversation is particularly relevant for retail investors looking to better understand the structural dynamics behind lithium's volatility, the role of government policy, and the long-term case for battery metals amid the global electrification shift.

CHAPTERS 📖
(00:00) Introduction
(02:42) Lithium Price Cycles and Market Outlook
(07:03) Growing Demand and China vs Western Production Dynamics
(11:51) EV Market Trends and Advanced Battery Pack Technology
(16:51) Long-Term Lithium Demand Forecasts and Beyond
(26:00) Lithium Chemistry: LFP, High-Nickel, and Sodium-Ion Competition
(33:41) Innovative Lithium Processing: Novalith's Carbonic Acid Method
(35:39) Middle East Energy Storage Projects and Regional Strategies
(45:34) Chilean Lithium Industry: SQM, Codelco, and Political Context
(51:41) Lithium Pricing Mechanics, Quality Premiums, and Recovery Outlook
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Links 🌍

RK Equity Website: https://rkequity.com/
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel
Podcast:
Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq?si=a4ca356c45394648
X (Twitter):
Howard: https://twitter.com/LithiumIonBull
Rodney: https://twitter.com/RodneyHooper13

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Rodney and Howard are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity’s website https://www.rkequity.com

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

Wednesday May 21, 2025

TMC is the Solution to Critical Raw Material Supply for the US | Craig Shesky

Wednesday May 21, 2025

In this episode, we're back for the sixth time with Craig Shesky, CFO of The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC), diving deep into recent groundbreaking developments. With significant momentum following President Trump's executive order on critical minerals, TMC has submitted the world's first commercial seabed mineral recovery application under the U.S. Seabed Mining Code. Craig sheds light on the status and timeline of these critical applications, strategic investment updates, and recent congressional testimony that highlights the growing U.S. support for seabed mining.

Howard and Rodney discuss the implications of TMC's $37 million strategic investment, involving prominent investors like Michael Hess and lithium pioneer Brian Paes-Braga. They also cover exciting battery technology advancements from GM and LG Energy, aligning closely with TMC’s rich manganese-nickel resource.

Tune in to understand how TMC is paving the way for a secure, sustainable, and strategic U.S. supply chain for critical minerals—key to America's industrial and energy future.

CHAPTERS 📖
(00:00) Introduction
(05:12) Commercial Recovery Permit Timeline
(08:13) U.S. Government Policy Support for Critical Minerals
(10:22) Funding and Financing Strategy
(12:45) Congressional Testimony & Environmental Regulation
(18:59) Partnerships & Processing Facility Opportunities
(26:02) Pre-Feasibility Study & Resource Valuation
(30:56) Recent Capital Raise & Closing Remarks
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Links 🌍

TMC Q1 2025 Conference Call Transcript: https://investors.metals.co/static-files/244215c5-96da-4a0d-9346-e7795ba163b5
TMC Investor Presentation: https://investors.metals.co/static-files/27a024a1-2774-4b5d-b4ee-16ee3123ceb8

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

Friday May 16, 2025

Has Lithium Pricing Transparency Finally Arrived? Fastmarkets' William Adams and Przemek Koralewski

Friday May 16, 2025

In this episode, we welcome back William Adams and Przemek Koralewski from Fastmarkets to discuss recent developments in lithium markets, pricing dynamics, and emerging futures contracts on major exchanges. The conversation covers current supply-demand imbalances, factors influencing lithium price fluctuations, and potential inflection points investors may anticipate in the coming months and years.

Key topics include:

- Recent declines in lithium pricing and implications for producers and investors.
- Analysis of lithium futures markets and the role of contracts on ICE and CME.
- Discussion around marginal-cost producers and the economics of lithium supply.
- Insights into battery technology advancements, including sodium-ion, and their potential impacts on lithium demand.
- The influence of geopolitical tensions and the drive toward supply-chain localization.

This discussion aims to provide retail investors with a balanced perspective on the lithium market's outlook, highlighting both short-term market realities and longer-term strategic considerations.

CHAPTERS 📖
(00:00) ICE Announces New Lithium Contracts
(03:35) Recent Lithium Price Trends
(04:32) Supply Surge & Deficit Outlook
(05:24) Market Analogies & Low-Grade Supply Potential
(07:31) Growth of Lithium Futures Markets
(09:29) Producer Margins & Potential Cutbacks
(11:59) Carbonate vs. Hydroxide Pricing Shift
(13:04) Emerging Battery Technologies Landscape
(14:29) Geopolitical Tensions & Supply Chain Localization
(17:23) Price Recovery Forecast & Hedging Strategies
(25:07) Physical's Impact on Futures Market
(28:03) Potential for Battery Cell Futures
(29:44) CIF China vs FOB Australia Contracts
(30:43) Closing Remarks
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Links 🌍

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

Monday May 12, 2025

Sigma Lithium: Q1 Preview, Offtake Strategy, Cost Cuts, Grota do Cirilo Resource | Ana Cabral

Monday May 12, 2025

In this episode, we welcome back Ana Cabral, CEO of Sigma Lithium (NASDAQ/TSXV: SGML), to discuss the latest developments and outlook for the company. Ana provides a detailed overview of Sigma's Grota do Cirilo project in Brazil, highlighting its resource size, cost advantages, and ongoing expansion plans.

We dive into Sigma Lithium’s recent operational results, including production growth, cost reductions, and strong EBITDA margins despite current lithium market conditions. Ana shares insights into the company’s commercial strategies, including considerations around flexible offtake agreements and potential prepayment structures.

The conversation also covers broader industry themes, including the current dynamics in lithium pricing, global EV and battery demand trends, and the geopolitical advantages of operating in Brazil. Ana reflects on her recent participation in the Milken Institute Conference, sharing perspectives on the global energy transition and implications for lithium miners.

Finally, we discuss valuation benchmarks, how Sigma compares to peers in the lithium sector such as Pilbara Minerals, and key considerations for retail investors evaluating lithium stocks in today's challenging market environment.

Please note that RK Equity is an advisor to Sigma Lithium. The company will be releasing its official Q1 earnings on May 14th.

CHAPTERS 📖
(00:00) Introduction
(03:14) Grota do Cirilo Project Overview
(06:35) Q1 Performance & Commercial Highlights
(11:58) Plant 2 Expansion & 2025-26 Guidance
(18:27) Offtake Flexibility & Prepayment Strategy
(20:24) Geopolitical Advantages & Market Dynamics
(27:06) Current Lithium Demand/Supply Dynamics
(34:36) Milken Institute Conference: Energy Transistion
(42:35) Valuation & Peer Comparison
(48:20) Closing Remarks
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Links 🌍

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

Friday May 09, 2025

Noa Lithium Brines: 60% YTD, Development Timeline, Path to 40,000 tpa | Gabriel Marcelo Rubacha

Friday May 09, 2025

In this episode, we sit down with Gabriel Marcelo Rubacha, CEO of Noa Lithium Brines (TSXV: NOAL), for an in-depth update on their three Argentine brine projects—Rio Grande, Arizaro, and Salinas Grandes. We cover:

📈 Noa Lithium’s recent 58% YTD stock gain, tight share structure, and Clean Elements’ C$13.5M strategic investment

🌎 Why Argentina’s salar brines are the world’s lowest-cost lithium source and Rio Tinto’s US$10B bet on the region

🗺️ Project deep dive: high-grade 4.7 Mt @525 mg/L resource at Rio Grande, exploration potential at Arizaro, and infrastructure-rich Salinas Grandes

💧 Ongoing water-well drilling results and why securing industrial water is critical for process design

📊 Hatch-led PEA timeline targeting 20,000 tpa initial production and scalability to 40,000 tpa (Q3 results expected)

🤝 Funding strategy and ideal partner profile to transition from exploration to production

📅 Join us at the Fastmarkets Lithium Conference (June 23–26) in Las Vegas—email rockstockchannel@rkequity.com to connect with Rodney and me as well as Gabriel

CHAPTERS 📖
(00:00) Introduction
(03:03) Summary Synopsis
(04:40) Overview of Noa Lithium's Three Key Projects
(07:44) Regional Competitors and Government Support
(12:13) Water Drilling Campaign and PEA Milestones
(15:50) Funding Strategy and Partnership Criteria
(21:38) Development Timeline
(25:18) Closing Remarks
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Links 🌍

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

Monday May 05, 2025

Hotter Commodities 2: Energy Security & the Critical Minerals Race w/ Fastmarkets' Andrea Hotter

Monday May 05, 2025

In this episode, I catch up again with Andrea Hotter, Special Correspondent at Fastmarkets, to dive into the shifting landscape of critical minerals and commodities. Andrea recently attended the Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) summit in Washington, D.C., and shares valuable insights on how policy narratives have dramatically shifted—from ESG and climate change to national and energy security.

We discuss major developments, including the impact of reciprocal tariffs, government funding for critical minerals projects, and the evolving role of foreign investors and allies like South Korea, Japan, and Chile. Andrea also highlights the massive implications of new U.S. executive orders aimed at fast-tracking project permitting and the potential introduction of equity investments by the U.S. government into strategic mining and processing projects.

Later, we explore one of the most fascinating yet controversial developments: deep-sea mining. Andrea provides perspective on recent executive moves toward commercializing seabed minerals, including nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earths, while examining the risks and opportunities in this emerging field.

Finally, we touch on investment opportunities in both mainstream and niche commodities markets, from lithium and copper to lesser-known critical metals. We examine how the growth of liquid derivatives contracts, including those recently launched by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) with Fastmarkets, is transforming commodities into more investable markets.

Be sure to subscribe for more insights into commodities investing, market trends, and policy developments.

CHAPTERS 📖
(00:00) Introduction
(03:20) Key Takeaways from Securing America's Future Energy Summit
(06:52) Impact of Tariffs on Battery-Grade Material Investments
(10:40) Government Support, Financing Tools, and Permitting Challenges
(30:24) Opportunities and Controversies in Deep-Sea Mining
(40:45) Navigating Mainstream vs. Niche Critical Minerals Investments
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Links 🌍

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

Friday May 02, 2025

Rock Stock Recap: Tariff Strategy, US Dollar Devaluation, Canada-Chile Political Risk

Friday May 02, 2025

In this Rock Stock Recap episode, Rodney and I share our latest insights following Trump's Liberation Day and the unfolding impacts of recent U.S. tariff policies, drawing striking parallels to past global shocks such as the onset of COVID-19 and historical events like the Cuban Missile Crisis. We delve deep into Stephen Miran's pivotal analysis on restructuring the global trade system, highlighting crucial policy discussions around phased tariffs, the intentional managed decline of the U.S. dollar, and how these strategies could influence commodity markets, particularly critical minerals.

We also explore the potential "Mar-a-Lago Accords" and speculate on how shifts in U.S. monetary policy might ignite a new natural resource bull market. Additionally, we address strategic U.S.-China relations, specifically the prospects of increased Chinese direct investment into the American EV battery supply chain and its broader economic implications.

Tune in as Rodney and I dissect the broader geopolitical dynamics, key market movements, and emerging investment opportunities in lithium and other critical minerals. Stay informed on the evolving strategies shaping our global economic future. Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more deep dives into critical mineral markets!

CHAPTERS 📖
(00:00) Introduction: Market Volatility and Tariff Uncertainty
(02:31) G&R and Steve Miran's Insights: A Global Monetary Shift?
(08:55) Lithium Market Hopes: A Potential U.S.-China Grand Bargain
(11:01) Rodney's View: Managed Dollar Decline and Commodity Impact
(13:25) China's Technological Leap: From Toys to EVs and Robotics
(16:41) Tariff Strategy: Phase-In vs. All-In Approach
(19:51) China's Struggle with Domestic Consumption Growth
(21:51) Debt Culture: Comparing U.S. and China Economic Structures
(25:06) Who Blinks First? U.S. vs. China in the Trade Stand-Off
(26:39) Globalized Supply Chains: Risk Exposure in Prolonged Tariff Wars
(30:01) Citi's Lithium Outlook: Oversupply and Price Pressures
(31:08) Lithium Equities: Evaluating Current Valuations
(33:58) BYD and CATL Innovations: The Competitive Threat
(37:18) Canadian Election Impact on Critical Minerals Strategy
(40:13) Chile's Political Landscape: Implications for Lithium Supply
(41:30) SQM, Tianqi, and China's Strategic Moves in Chile
(43:43) Evaluating U.S. Critical Minerals Investments Amid Oversupply
(47:09) Future Demand: Electrification, Robotics, and Lithium Supply
(48:13) Closing Thoughts: Navigating Volatility and Opportunity

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Links 🌍

A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf

Mark Carney on Scott Galloway: https://open.spotify.com/episode/78egStLrUdyUMfchC5pw4Q?si=ODg0z_iNTkGzEFszosU-tg

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

Tuesday Apr 29, 2025

European Metals Holdings Secures $36M EU Grant for Czech Lithium Project | Keith Coughlan

Tuesday Apr 29, 2025

In this episode, I sit down again with Keith Coughlan, Managing Director of European Metals Holdings ($EMH), to discuss the latest major milestone for the Cinovec lithium project in the Czech Republic. EMH has secured final approval for a significant $36 million grant from the EU’s Just Transition Fund, highlighting strong support from both the Czech government and the European Commission.

Keith shares insights into how EMH plans to use the funds to accelerate the project, including meeting important environmental assessment deadlines and progressing the definitive feasibility study (DFS). We also explore the broader context of Europe's push for strategic independence in critical minerals, potential financing pathways involving European financial institutions, and ongoing discussions with European OEMs regarding lithium offtake.

Tune in for Keith's thoughts on lithium pricing dynamics, carbonate vs. hydroxide strategy, and how EMH intends to attract top-tier European partners to finance and offtake lithium from what remains Europe's largest hard-rock lithium resource.

CHAPTERS 📖
(00:00) Introduction and Overview of European Metals Holdings
(01:44) Significance of EU Just Transition Fund Grant
(03:18) Grant Conditions: Environmental Impact Assessment Timeline
(04:54) Status Update on Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS)
(06:05) Understanding the Just Transition Fund and Grant Drawdown Process
(08:34) Funding Strategy and Role of European Investment Bank
(12:44) Dialogue with Western OEMs and Offtake Strategy
(14:46) Potential Role of Chinese Partners in Project Development
(16:26) Structuring Offtake Agreements for Cinovec Project
(18:55) Product Strategy: Carbonate vs Hydroxide
(19:37) Closing Remarks
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Links 🌍

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

Monday Apr 28, 2025

Jindalee Lithium: On the US Government Fast Track w/ Ian Rodger

Monday Apr 28, 2025

In this episode, we continue our 'Getting to Know You' series with Jindalee Lithium (ASX: JLL). The discussion revolves around Jindalee's advancement of the McDermitt Lithium Project in Oregon and its strategic significance, especially considering the recent $3 billion investment in the adjacent Lithium America's Thacker Pass Project. The episode covers the impact of recent US government measures, including an executive order to boost American mineral production and the FAST-41 initiative, which has highlighted 10 critical mineral projects, including Jindalee's. CEO Ian Rodger delves into the project's scale, geology, and the significance of Jindalee being selected under FAST-41. Further discussions include the company's financial status, strategic partnerships, and upcoming Development Feasibility Study (DFS). The episode also addresses the broader context of the US government's support for domestic lithium production and the implications for Jindalee's future prospects.

CHAPTERS 📖
(00:00) Jindalee Lithium Overview
(00:43) U.S. Lithium Investment and National Policy Updates
(01:50) Summary Synopsis
(03:11) Overview of the McDermitt Lithium Project
(04:31) Significance of FAST-41 Designation
(07:08) Transition to a Pure Play Lithium Company
(08:22) Strategic Partnership Engagement
(09:26) Plans for Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS)
(11:07) Status of Environmental Permitting and Drilling Plans
(12:14) Update on Potential DOD Grant Application
(13:10) Comparison to Peer Projects and Government Support
(16:39) Importance of Federal and State Collaboration
(17:45) Market Conditions and Long-Term Outlook
(18:48) Closing Remarks
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Links 🌍

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

Thursday Apr 24, 2025

Breaking News! Benchmark Minerals & ICE Launch Lithium Futures | Caspar Rawles

Thursday Apr 24, 2025

In this episode, we break significant news in the critical minerals and energy transition space, featuring Caspar Rawles, COO of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence (BMI). Rawles announces a landmark partnership between Benchmark and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to launch a suite of futures contracts for lithium, cobalt, and spodumene—marking ICE’s first move into the mining sector.

The contracts, which will be cash-settled and based on Benchmark’s globally respected price assessments, represent a major evolution in how critical minerals are traded and hedged. The offerings include lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide CIF Asia, spodumene concentrate FOB Australia, and cobalt hydroxide CIF Asia.

Rawles underscores that the lithium market remains relatively immature and volatile, with current futures options—such as those on Chinese exchanges—lacking global accessibility due to regulatory, political, and liquidity concerns. The ICE-Benchmark partnership aims to address these gaps with more transparent, accessible, and globally accepted instruments.

For investors, the implications are substantial:

- Hedging Opportunities: Companies across the EV and battery supply chains will now have access to trusted futures products to hedge against lithium price volatility—historically one of the biggest challenges in this sector.

- Market Maturity: Futures tied to Benchmark’s physical-market-oriented pricing data offer enhanced credibility and are already written into many long-term commercial contracts.

- Project Finance Enablement: By providing tools to manage commodity price risk, the contracts could make it easier for mining developers to secure financing—a critical step, given that lithium production needs to quadruple over the next decade to meet demand.

- Liquidity Roadmap: Initial contracts may offer maturities of up to two years, with the goal of extending further as liquidity builds and institutional participation deepens.

- Strategic Differentiation: The inclusion of spodumene futures, which have not previously existed in standardized form, is a unique addition, catering directly to the evolving procurement strategies of OEMs and battery manufacturers.

Rawles also discusses the structure of credit and clearing, noting that ICE Clear Europe will handle clearing functions, with most transactions expected to be routed through banks or financial institutions already active on ICE platforms.

Finally, investors are invited to attend a formal Benchmark webinar on May 1st and consider attending the Benchmark Giga USA Conference in Washington D.C. this June—key touchpoints for understanding how these market developments will impact lithium and broader energy transition investments.

CHAPTERS 📖
(00:00) ICE-Benchmark Minerals Partnership
(00:56) Details of the New Futures Contracts
(01:29) Why Existing Lithium Futures Aren't Enough
(03:07) Benchmark's Role and Data Credibility
(04:03) Upcoming Benchmark Webinar Announcement
(04:41) Connection Between Physical Market and Futures
(05:45) Use of Benchmark Prices in Long-Term Contracts
(07:11) Contract Duration and Market Liquidity Goals
(09:34) Managing Credit Risk and Clearing Structures
(11:15) Banks and Financial Institutions as Key Players
(12:15) Margin Requirements and Contract Regulation
(13:00) Expected Launch Timeline for Trading
(13:32) Value of Hedging Spodumene in the Supply Chain
(16:42) ICE's Strategic Focus on Energy Transition Metals
(17:38) Closing Remarks
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Links 🌍

Benchmark Webinar: https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/events/bmi-ice-the-next-stage-in-lithium-price-transparency

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein